Main Computer Models Offering Conflicting Information...

Tropical Storm Elsa continues to race rapidly towards the WNW at nearly 30 mph.  That is an extremely fast forward motion that tells me two things.  1) it cannot make any drastic curves to its path until it slows down and 2) it is very unlikely to increase to a Hurricane unless it slows down.  In fact NHC, in their discussion , suggests the fast motion of the surface circulation could outrace all the upper T-Storms preventing any intensifying.

We begin with satellite views of an active Tropical Atlantic which normally is quiet until late July & August.  But not this year!  NHC's latest track forecast is virtually identical to their previous tracks.

 They do not make Elsa a Hurricane and turn her northward moving just off Florida's west coast.   NHC is giving way more weight to the GFS model since the European appears out to lunch.

Here is the GFS model forecast for next Wednesday bring the center just west and north of Tampa.  The bottom graphic is the highest wind gust forecast following the surface track forecast.  But wait, What does the Euro say?

Huh?  It dissipates Elsa and keeps the weak wind field way east of Florida.   How could two models be so different?  Certainly doesn't give us a lot of confidence.   The bottom graphic is the upper air pattern valid for Saturday that has a deep east coast trough that should bring a cold front down to the Gulf Coast.

You can already see how much cooler it is along with much lower dew points (drier air).  I personally think this front will push down off our coast during the day on Saturday drying us out and making for a sunny, hot but dry July 4th.  That front could be the weakness that helps turn Elsa to the north before it could threaten the north central Gulf Coast.  Let's hope so.  Where ever Elsa ends up going, she will not be a problem until after this holiday weekend.'

You can see all the clouds and showers along the cold front.  We should see shower chances go up for Friday PM into midday on Saturday.  Note who is getting the cooling relief today.

The official FOX 8 Forecast stalls the front over us keeping us wet the whole weekend.  I'm trying to be more optimistic in moving front through.  Stay tuned!