The Trend Is Our Friend...For Now...

Normally I don't start doing multiple posts until a storm gets closer, however, I realize they are thousands from SE LA/MS that have gone over to Florida (Beaches/Disney World/Universal) for this holiday weekend.   In a bit of a surprise, NHC upgraded Elsa to a Hurricane before the Hurricane Hunters arrived on the scene this morning because they had ground truth data on Barbados that recorded sustained winds of 65 with gusts to 86 mph.  Consequently, Tropical Storm Warnings became Hurricane warnings for the islands.

The arrow points out Barbados where it appears they were in the northern eyewall even though there is no apparent eye on satellite pictures.   The new NHC track pretty much follows previous ones with a SLIGHT shift to the east on days 4 & 5.

The only way you would know about that shift is if you follow the center line track close up.

The top graphic is the 4 AM track making landfall north of Ft. Myers and then moving right over Tampa Bay.  The bottom graphic is the 10 AM update showing the landfall roughly in the same location, but then the new centerline track is east of Tampa heading right over Lakeland.  Remember, if you can stay west of the track, you will historically avoid the worst part of the storm,   The big player this weekend will be the unusually deep upper level east coast trough.  That should bring down a cold front off the East Coast creating a weakness in the atmosphere allowing Elsa to make the turn to the north.

Look at the 60s & 70s north of the front with dew points in the 50s (dry air) as far south as St. Louis.  I still believe the front will make it through us and push down to the coast by midday on Saturday.  That would result in a mostly dry 4th of July weekend here and over to the Florida beaches. There are lots of showers and storms along the frontal boundary and expect that to reach the North Shore around 3 PM and the South Shore after 6 PM.   

The main question is...will these storms keep moving to the south?  or will they run out of gas (upper support) and the boundary lingers resulting in a semi wet weekend here?  I'm betting on the first scenario.  C'mon down cold front!   I'll have another post around 4 PM to see if the track trend keeps shifting to the east.  NHC is quick to remind us that the average track error for days 4 & 5 is 175 & 200 miles respectfully.  There is still a lot of UNCERTAINTY as to who in Florida will get the brunt of Elsa. Stay tuned!