TUTTs dominates The Tropics...

During the summer, we often find T.U.T.T.s (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Troughs) covering the Tropics, especially when we are in an unfavorable (sinking air) phase of the MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation).  We are now in week 3 of that phase and that should continue into the first 1-2 weeks in August.

These upper lows rarely work their way down to the surface and NHC expects no tropical activity for the next 5 days.  Models are not hinting of any development well in August.

There is a tropical wave moving westward over the eastern Caribbean and an old boundary across the northern Gulf.  What we should be watching into next week is for a cold front to push off the northern Gulf coast.

These graphics are the upper air flow for 500 mb (18,000')  The top was from this morning showing the upper heat dome centered in the Plains.  Notice how that shrinks and retreats to the west with the 2nd graphic valid for Saturday morning, the third valid for Monday, the 4th valid for next Wednesday with the bottom valid for next Friday.   We go from an upper heat dome over us to an east coast trough centered over Kentucky.  That will make for a totally difference forecast for us.  We'll go from very hot & mostly dry to less hot and above normal clouds and storms.  What I'll be paying attention to is if the cold front gets into the Gulf, could a low spin up on the western end?   That happened back in 1983 when Hurricane Alicia formed and quickly became a Cat. 3 Hurricane.  Models aren't showing that...yet.

The surface map has 2 cold fronts moving down over the Great Lakes.  Cooling relief has returned to the Northeast with 60s & 70s with even colder air up in Canada ready to head south.  Don't expect it to be cooler here, just less hot.

In fact, most of next week should stay below 90 due to more clouds & storms.  For the next 2 days, little change is expected with more heat and only a few PM storms.

You can see where the few showers are as some spots have cooled into the 80s.  Both Friday & Saturday will see above normal Temps. with below normal showers.  Changes will arrive by Sunday into next week.  Stay tuned!