Tropical Storm Hilda has formed and is expected to become a Hurricane tomorrow as it heads to the west. Out ahead of Hilda is TD # 9 that is expected to reach tropical storm strength tomorrow. The favorable phase of the MJO is not expected over the Tropical Atlantic until after August 15th, just in time for the heart of the 2021 season. Right now all is quiet.
There is a weak mid level swirl down over the extreme southern Caribbean, but that is heading towards central America. Another weak mid level swirl is over the northern Gulf, but there is little weather with it. The big story remains the heat.
You can see the cooler and drier air filtering down over the Great Lakes with dew points falling into the 40s & 50s (Good feel air). Models continue to collapse the upper heat dome and shift it back to the west allowing a deep east coast trough to develop.
I've been showing you these upper air charts where the ridge/heat dome centered over Nebraska & Oklahoma today collapses and the east coast trough develops. The top graphic is from this morning. The next is valid Monday morning followed by Wednesday morning and the bottom is valid for next Friday. Clearly we will see a change in our hot & mostly dry weather to a wetter pattern for Sunday through Wednesday before we actually become less humid for later next week.
Another way to show the change is these two graphics. The top shows the current heat warnings that have been pushed down over the southern states while the next has all the flood watches over the drought stricken West.
Locally, we have one more day of above normal heat before cooling showers return for the beginning of next week.
IF we get that cold front to push into the northern Gulf late next Wednesday, we'll need to pay attention regarding any spin ups along its western end. Models are not showing anything happening and that is good. Stay tuned!
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