Will The Front Push Through Us Giving Us A Drier Weekend?

While I await the 4 PM advisory from NHC, let me focus on a cold front that is sinking down into north LA/MS.  It already has cleared out much of the eastern 2/3rd of the U.S. replacing record heat with a delightfully pleasant airmass.

Note dew points are in the 50s (dry air) as far south as Memphis.  There are some showers/storms with this front, but there is no line of storms, just scattered ahead of it.

We have seen a few storms bubble up during daytime heating, but they are not associated with the front.  If the front continues to move down to the coast, showers should end before noon on Saturday making for a great afternoon & evening at Uncle Sam Jam at Lafreniere Park in Metairie.  If the front stall, some spotty downpours could linger through the weekend.  I'm pulling for the front.  The FOX 8 seven day stalls the front.

OK, the 4 PM advisory is in and there are no major changes.  A negative is Elsa's winds are now up to 85 mph, while it remains racing to the WNW at 30 mph. Yikes!  That fast forward speed may make it difficult for Elsa to make the northward turn soon enough to keep her out of the Gulf.  However, NHC is not shifting their forecast track back to the west.  In fact, they haven't changed it at all.

All models indicate this will be Florida's storm and not ours.  In fact, if you're at the FL/AL. beaches, enjoy your weekend as Elsa's impacts will stay far to the east and not arrive until Tuesday and Wednesday.  I'll be watching the forward speed to see some slowdown since it can't make the recurve going this fast.  One other thing to remember for Florida.  The intensity of Elsa will be reduced by passing over several land areas with mountains. (Haiti/Jamaica, Cuba)  That should mean evacuations will NOT be necessary in Florida as it will be more a heavy rain threat instead of wind /storm surge.   I may post again tonight IF I see something you need to know.  Stay tuned!