Fred Not Dead Yet, Florida Beware...

It came as no surprise that Tropical Storm Fred was severely weakened while passing over the tall mountains of Hispaniola with most of his rain storms trapped on the Dominican Republic side.  Satellite views show a totally exposed center with no T-Storms around it.   In addition, there is an upper low north of it over Florida creating upper wind shear that should limit development in the short term.

The upper low is expected to drift westward taking the upper shear with it.  So Fred is likely to regain Tropical Storm strength as he gets into the SE Gulf on Saturday.  Since we are in the favorable (rising air) phase of the MJO, I fear Fred could rapidly increase in intensity before it arrives over the big Ben area of Florida by late Sunday.  NHC has shifted their center line track slightly back to the west (towards us) and we'll need to see if this is a trend that could bring Fred's impacts closer to the NW Florida beaches.

The middle graphic is the 4 PM update while the bottom is from this morning.  If you don't plot the center line track, you would not see the slight shift to the west.   RIGHT NOW, Fred will be a Florida storm UNLESS the trend to the west continues.   Let me caution everyone that experience tells me models do not handle weaker storms as well as well defined stronger systems.  If you have a trip planned for the Florida beaches or Theme Parks, you need to keep up with any changes in Fred.   He's struggling now, but once over the Gulf and away from land this weekend, Fred could become a more potent storms.  

The other system NHC is highlighting is in the central Atlantic. We'll have many days to follow it and see if it's Grace by this weekend.

The surface weather map is stuck on August with many folks dealing with heat & humidity.  Note 70+ dew points are up to Boston & NYC with temps even hotter than us!

Fortunately for them, a cold front is coming that will bring welcomed cooling relief for this weekend.  No the cold front isn't coming here, but it's a sign that the seasons are starting to change.

For us to start cooling, it first has to cool farther north.  Look at he building chill up in Canada (30s & 40s as the days get shorter and the nights longer.

Locally, our cooling comes from daily spotty storms.   Where it rains, temps. fall into the 70s.  That's the best we can expect for August.    Hopefully September can bring us some real cold fronts that might even block any tropical systems from coming our way?   For now we'll focus on Fred.  I'll update later tonight if that westward track shift continues.  Stay tuned!