There is an upper low now over the central Gulf that is pulling westward ahead of Ida. By the time Ida reaches the central Gulf, that upper low will be gone. I still see a small swirl down over the southern Caribbean and I'm not sure if that means anything. Notice the colorized IR has lots of storms well east and SE of the center (arrow) with not much near the center. I suspect Ida will slowly strengthen during the day on Friday before it enters the Gulf early on Saturday.
The 10 pm NHC forecast track is almost identical from 4 PM with even the tighter view still having the center line over Houma. Bottom line...the threat to Louisiana hasn't changed.
Until computer models change, NHC will not vary much on their track. What would be better for us? ( but worse for others) I'd like to see a shift more to our east with the center going east of GPT/BIX. If that happens, we get very little impact while the MS/AL coasts get hammered. IF it shift farther to the west, we need it to get west of Lafayette or Lake Charles(not again!) to lessen our local impacts. Let's give it another day to decide what to do. I'd be checking with relatives or friends far from here to see if you can stay with them in case you have to evacuate over the weekend. If you have to leave early on Saturday, know where you're going and how to get there. I don't want to speculate on how strong or exactly where landfall will occur on something that is another day from the Gulf. Stay tuned and see ya in the AM.
13 comments:
Dear Lord..... NOT AGAIN!!!!
What’s all this mean for Laplace , just south of I-10 ?
Hopefully this one will stay the course and come right here. Last season it was a complete bust. We were teased 4 times and ended up with nothing!
Thank you so much Bob!! My entire family wait for your updates!
Thanks Bob!
Don’t be a drama queen!
WHAT
Bob you and David Bernard are the two best hurricane forecasters. Y'all are the only two i watch. I live in Hammond on the north shore. I hope it really don't keep on this track because that will be very bad for north and south shore. Stay safe bob and lord bless us all.
Would it make any sense to go to Alexandria, LA?
I’m hoping this is sarcasm. A direct hit or slight easterly track would be devastating for us as a cat 3. Did you not live through Katrina? I have no interest in having another 8 feet water in my home losing EVERYTHING. And I’m willing to bet that those who lost loved ones to drowning and heat stroke would be disgusted by this comment especially given it will hit on Katrina’s 16th anniversary date. Further, are you really looking forward to a week or more with no electricity given we are in a heatwave with heat index’s of up to 113 degrees? You’re out of your ever bloody mind.
You really are a garbage human being
The top and bottom models, as far as Ida will be where, are very different. The top two show Saturday she's out in the Gulf and it won't be till Sunday evening that she makes landfall, the bottom has a reaching the coast Saturday night and by Sunday she's well inland. Which is more recent?
Thanks for your service, Bob.
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