We Now Have Ida And She Aims For Us...

By now you have either watched the local news or viewed all the stuff on the internet so I will not waste your time going back over that.  I'll share what I see and feel regarding newly named Tropical Storm Ida.

Ida is NOT rapidly intensifying yet.  I've drawn in the upper low heading across the Gulf moving ahead of Ida plus what appears to me to be a small circulation down over the Caribbean SSW of Ida.  It looks like that little low may be hindering the moisture into Ida on the south side.  Once Ida moves away from that swirl, I expect her to start getting better organized and that should happen on Friday.  The NHC newest track doesn't look much different from this morning, UNLESS you look at the center line track.

Look closely at the bottom 2 graphics.  The first is the newest center line while the bottom is from 10 AM.  Note the subtle shift to the east.  is that a trend?  Will it continue?  If it does, then that means the threat to the MS/AL coasts increases.   Our decision day will come late Friday or early on Saturday.  

Remember, computer models do not handle weak systems very well.  The past couple of storms have shown us that.  Ida remains weak and disorganized tonight so we should not go making decisions as if the forecast track is guaranteed.  What does bother me is the "consensus" of the spaghetti models RIGHT NOW.

That would take Ida over the warmest waters of the Gulf's loop current.  The bottom graphic is the earliest arrival of tropical storm force winds.  You can see, we have Friday and Saturday to get prepared before it will get too dangerous to be outside IF the current forecast proves correct.   The current center line track and cone of error is not good for us.  If the eastward shift continues and ends up towards GPT/BIX, then that lessens the impacts for us and increases the danger to the Mississippi and Alabama coasts.  Let's keep watching and be ready to either stay or leave.

For Friday, we might see fewer showers as the satellite pics show sunshine along the coasts to our east.  Today's rains have cooled us into the 70s & 80s and our recent heat wave is over!

As the 7 day says...depends on Ida.  Since I have a 2 story home and window shutters and a full house generator, I will not evacuate as we have gassed up and have our hurricane supplies.  I will wait until Saturday before moving all my potted plants and lawn furniture inside my back He-shed. stay tuned!