Is This August 2nd? Heat Wave Collapsed...

The last 2 weeks in july & the 1st 2 weeks in August are, historically, the hottest time of the year across the U.S.   But looking at the current temps over the nation , one would think it's late September.  Last week, triple digit heat covered the Plains and we had heat advisories from the Dakotas to Texas.  Not today as the heat advisories are gone.

Dew points have dropped into the 50s & 60 north of the front and I'm hoping some of that good feel air sags down to the Gulf coast.  The front isn't that far away and another upper disturbance (arrow) should push it by us by late Tuesday.

Part of the reason for the cooldown is abundant cloud cover and showers from Texas to Georgia.  So I have talked about this before, an August front pushing over the northern Gulf.  The next graphics describe what I consider a small chance to happen.

The top view is the current satellite pic and I've drawn on the surface fronts.  The next several graphics, I move the front down into the Gulf with a small spin up/circulation forming on the tail end of the front.  As the upper trough lifts away, the surface low goes with it.  Sometimes (Alicia 1983) that spin up begins to develop and heads to the west.  None of the models are showing that with this front, but I just wanted that idea out there in case the front makes it into the northern Gulf.   

The other news today is NHC has highlighted an area way out in the Atlantic, and I do mean way out.   They only give it a 20% (slight) chance to develop as it moves to the north and not to the west.  The rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf remain quiet.

All the tropical activity continues over the eastern Pacific where we have 2 weak named storms.

Typically, when the Pacific is active the Atlantic is not.  Models are indicating the MJO is rotating towards the favorable (rising air) over the Caribbean and Atlantic.  Models aren't picking up on any development just yet, but look for things to begin firing off during the next 7-10 days.  Locally, it almost feels nice!

Look for another above normal day of clouds & showers on Tuesday before we dry out for 2 days behind this August front.  It's back to basic summertime for Friday & the weekend.

Don't get too concerned with 92+ heat as less humidity will make that 92 feel not as hot.  By Friday into the weekend the humidity returns so we'll be baking again.  October is less than 2 months away.   Stay tuned!