Hurricane Season Getting Ready to Explode?

The Tropics have gone quiet since Hurricane Elsa nearly 3 weeks ago.   NHC is beginning to indicate increased action about to develop off the African Coast.   That is 2 weeks away for us, but it's the time of year where we look far out into the Atlantic.

Right now satellite views don't show much, but models are hinting a stronger wave will emerge out into the Atlantic later this week.   In the short term, the Caribbean and Gulf remain quiet with a broad frontal boundary sagging near us from the north.

I've drawn a small low where I'm seeing a weak rotation just north of Lake Charles.  We are on the wet side of the low and several lines of storms have developed creating a "training effect" for some folks.  Flash flood warnings have been issued and we continue to have the heavy rain threat through midnight as the low moves to the ESE.   I'll be curious to see if this low starts to develop once over the Gulf waters.  NHC doesn't think so.    The major question this week is, will drier air push down over us?

I've drawn the upper flow on satellite pictures and the surface map has the boundary very close to us.  My guess is we'll see the drier air sweep over the North Shore after midnight reaching the South Shore after daybreak.

If you just look at temperatures, it's hard to find the front.  But dew points are in the 50s & 60 north of the front.  Some of that dry air should be with us Wednesday & Thursday before humidity & showers return for Friday into the weekend.

You can see cooling relief from today's showers but with no rain the next 2 days, highs will be back to 90+.    Lower humidity will mean cooler mornings north of Lake P.  With the Lake water near 90,  we won't be cooler south, but it should feel better.   Enjoy and we'll start to worry about the Tropics when we have something to track.  Stay tuned!