It's Only A Matter Of Time, Fred Is Coming...

I'm writing this while waiting for the 4 PM NHC Advisory.  I mentioned in a post several days ago that the last 3 weeks of August could see 3-4 named storms after no activity for over a month.   That appears likely to happen as Fred should be named over the Caribbean, Grace could be next over the far eastern Atlantic with more disturbances set to move off of Africa.

Obviously our focus is on the closer in stuff with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean and soon to be Fred just south of Puerto Rico.   Just looking at satellite views, one would say based on the well defined structure/presentation, we have Tropical Storm Fred.  A Hurricane Recon aircraft is currently flying into the system and NHC is waiting on their data.

I've placed the arrow on what appears to be the center and the worst of this disturbance so far is staying south of Puerto Rico.   So far, soon to be Fred is on a similar track that Elsa took in late June/July.

The key for us is how soon it makes the turn to the north?    Models so far are keeping everything well to our east, but that could change.   Here's the latest 4 PM NHC advisory.

NHC is keeping the disturbance PTC # 6 until they have more recon data later this evening.  They have made no significant changes in their track thinking, and unless there is a large shift to the west this weekend, it appear RIGHT NOW this will be another Florida storm.  The bottom graphic is the oceanic heat content showing the warmest waters west of Jamaica with the loop current into the Gulf.  Don't be surprised if soon to be Fred struggles until it gets away from land areas and into the warmer waters of the Eastern Gulf this next weekend.   If you are going to the beaches or to the theme parks in central Florida this weekend into next week, you need to pay attention in case this system strengthens into a bigger storm.  Again, it should NOT impact SE LA/MS unless the track drastically shifts westward.

Getting back to our local weather, not much is happening besides our spotty daily storms.  The axis of the Atlantic Ridge/Bermuda High is right across us resulting is limited wind flow and slow moving storms.

Brutally high dew points have surged all the way north to Green Bay and over to the Northeast.   Behind the front over the northern plains, dew points drop into the 40s & 50s.  That relief is not coming our way.

Our brief cooling comes from our spotty storms that today dropped 1-3" in less than an hour resulting in brief street flooding.  Expect a repeat again tomorrow.  I will update later tonight IF there is something important to say about Fred.  Stay tuned!