Still No Fred, But PTC # 6...

Satellite loops clearly show a rotation around Invest 94, but without low level recon data, it's difficult to say we have a TD or Tropical Storm Fred.  Since it is approaching the Islands, NHC wants to issue warnings so they're calling it Potential Tropical Cyclone # 6, or soon to be Fred.

There remain several swirls out in the Atlantic, but the one nearing the Islands is the best defined.   You've seen the spaghetti model forecasts that bring this disturbance towards Florida this weekend.

I grabbed these graphics from one of my favorite tropical websites, baynews9.com, based out of Tampa.

Here is the first guess by NHC on the future track of PTC # 6.

MHC keeps the centerline track inside the red highlighted area issued at 2 PM.  As you can see, for the next several days, this disturbance will be interacting with land areas and that should limit development.  NHC is NOT making it a hurricane as it nears the Gulf.  Our pay attention day will be Friday when we should know if it makes the turn to the north away from us.  Right now it looks on a track similar to Elsa back in late June.  We have days to watch and wait.

The rest of the Caribbean and Gulf have no issues as it's typical August everywhere.

Since the main jet stream is up across the northern states, no fronts can make their way towards us.  That means, unless we get a tropical threat (not likely) during the next 7-10 days, look for little change in our daily weather.

With the fronts staying far north, most of the SE is baking with heat & humidity.  As the bottom graphic shows, heat alerts have returned.  Near 70+ dew points cover the country from South Dakota to Michigan to Boston.   The only cooling relief comes from spotty daytime T-Storms.

Without any fronts coming, we are in the boring Dog Days of August.

Of course our focus for the next 4-6+ weeks will be on the Tropics.   We promised an uptick in activity for the last 3 weeks of August and it appears that will happen.  Stay tuned!