There definitely is a broad circulation, but the IR color view shows just clusters of disorganized storms. The bottom graphic is the radar that seems to have a center trying to form west of Havana off the Cuban coast. A recon plane is in Fred now and we may know more on the 10 pm advisory.
So this is the latest NHC track based on a guess initialization point. Both their cone and center line is shifted farther to the west now west of Mobile Bay. The cone reaches westward to Lake Pontchartrain. The worst weather impacts will be east of the center with haevy rainfall being the main issue.
Bottom-line, if you plan to go east, do it early on Sunday so you get there before the heavy rains and wind. Unless Fred does something unexpected, NOLA should not see any major impacts. Go east of GPT & BIX, you'll get into some stormy weather.
Looking out to the Islands, Tropical Storm Grace is struggling with 2 clusters of storms. Her forward motion is so fast (west at 26 mph) that it appears she can't get any organization. NHC has shifted her track to the south and that makes it more likely Grace will reach the Gulf next week.
Note NHC never brings Grace to hurricane strength. The bottom graphic is from 10 AM nd you can see how the center line track has been shifted to the south. We have a long time to watch Grace. If Fred gets cranking tonight, NHC will probably issue Tropical Storm Watches for the northern Gulf coast. I'll post after 10 pm. Stay tuned!
2 comments:
Seems that Wind shear and dry air remain our best friends and seems to still be a big inhibitor regardless of watertemps and the favorable MJO Phase.
let's hope it doesn't shift more southward missing the Islands all together then we'll have bigger and stronger storm to deal with
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