The Hype Has Begun...

Normally, I warn you about the media over-hyping a storm.  However, many computer models for days have latched on to bringing a tropical system into the Central Gulf and strengthening it.   The last thing we need as we approach the 16th anniversary of Katrina is a major Hurricane in the Gulf. but that certainly is a possibility.   Let me first set up the whole picture.

Since the next 3-4 weeks are, historically, the most active time in the Hurricane Season, it's no surprise to see many disturbed areas that could develop into named storms, especially as we are heading back into the favorable (rising air) phase of the MJO.  We really need not worry about what's way out in the Atlantic.  Our focus has to be centered on the Caribbean and Gulf.

The top view has an upper low between Cuba & Florida moving westward into the Gulf.  That low has an NE shear over us while it's creating a SW shear over the Caribbean.  I've placed an L where there appears to be a mid-level swirl in the Caribbean.   So why should we be concerned?  Sometimes past history gives us a clue of future troubles.  The middle satellite view is current showing a large cluster of disorganized storms SE of Jamaica whil;e the bottom view is pre-hurricane Harvey back in late August 2017,  Thanks to Joe Bastardi (Weather Bell Analytics) for pointing this out.  The Harvey picture was one week before he became a major Hurricane.

 So the concern is for "rapid intensification" once in the Gulf.  The top graphic is the oceanic heat content with the deepest warmth over the NW Caribbean with the loop current over the southern Gulf.  The spaghetti plots are all over the place, but the NW motion trend is pretty obvious. The next two graphics are the GFS and Euro models that are almost identical on location & timing valid for next Monday PM.  A Recon aircraft is scheduled to investigate Invest 99L tomorrow afternoon.  Since we don't have a center yet, betting on the model solutions is risky.  We should know with much greater certainty the future track by Friday morning.  What you might do before then is do the usual stocking up on groceries before this weekend's rush.   If nothing forms or goes somewhere else, you'll use the groceries over time.  Let's plan ahead Gang.

Locally, the upper high is shifting away allowing some storms to erupt.  A weak front is far up north with most of the eastern 2/3 of the nation baking under brutal heat.

You can see by the temperatures where the showers are.  No rain and it's 90+.  Where it's stormy, temps are in the 70s.  With the upper low moving over the Gulf, our rain chances for the next few days will increase bringing many some cooling relief.  

The seven day will be dependent on the location of the potential Gulf storm this weekend.   No reason to get panicky yet, but I do have high concern for this weekend into early next week.  Let's make sure everyone in your family knows we have trouble in the Gulf this weekend.  I may post again tonight IF I see something that you should know.   Just watched Bruce and I'm going to watch David Bernard now on FOX 8.  Stay tuned!