Way Too Early To Have Any Confidence...

After watching David's program at 10 PM and looking at the latest GFS model run, there remains a great deal of uncertainty as to what location along the northern Gulf coast will receive the worst impacts from a system that hasn't formed yet.  There appears to be a mid level circulation on satellite loops along with an increase in T-Storm activity SE of Jamaica, but none of it appears to be rapidly organizing.

There also is an upper low moving off Florida into the eastern Gulf that will increase our rain chances for the next 2 days but that is separate from the possible surface low trying to form in the Caribbean.  NHC has highlighted an area for possible development, but what makes me a little nervous is the shift in the GFS model from this morning's run.

The top graphic is from this morning while the middle is this afternoon's.  Note the eastward shift from Lafayette to now right over NOLA.  In addition, the spaghetti plots has shifted from the upper Texas coast & SW Louisiana more towards us and the Mississippi coast.   As David pointed out, whatever forms could go from Houston to Mobile.  It's just way too soon to know.  And remember how the models have handled the past few storms.  A plane is scheduled out tomorrow and, once we have a center/initialization point, maybe then we can have more confidence in future projections?  For right now, too many uncertainties.  Stay tuned!