Tropical Pot Is Stirring, Not Boiling Yet...

NHC still has 3 areas highlighted out in the Atlantic and models are beginning to pick up on some of them.   They have labeled the system just off of Africa Invest 92L while the middle system is Invest 93L.  

93L has the best rotation/circulation and it appears that disturbance will become Fred early next week.  The other 2 are not likely to do much, but another system coming off of Africa will follow Fred into the Western Gulf in 2 weeks.   That's a long time away so just remember, these are early model runs which often are not accurate.

The top graphic is the GFS model valid NEXT Monday showing Fred recurving well east of Florida while the bottom (if accurate?) is valid 2 weeks from tomorrow showing Tropical Storm Grace heading into Mexico south of Brownsville.    You shouldn't read much into these early guesses, but instead start paying attention to the Tropics as we enter "Prime time".   Nothing is happening in the Caribbean & Gulf as the old frontal boundary across the northern Gulf has about dissipated.

Even though low level moisture is back, there are no storms near us making for a pretty day if you don't mind the heat.

The surface weather map is basuc summertime making for those "lazy, crazy days of summer."  Note the 70+ dew points have surged into Iowa & South Dakota so a good part of the nation is enduring hot & humid conditions.

A few storms have popped over SW Louisiana and we could see spotty storms for the next 7-10 days as no new fronts are coming.   The 7 days is fairly useless at this time of the year.   Finally, look at the smoke out West.

The recent rains over the SW are gone for now and many fires still rage.   Yea, we have to endure hurricane threats every summer, but other parts of our nation have problems too.   I will increase my postings once the storms start cooking in the Atlantic as the MJO heads to the favorable (rising air) phase during the next 2-3 weeks.  Stay tuned!