Data Sparse, Models Only Guide So Far...

Just getting the daylight (visible) satellite views and it is apparent that 99L is not rapidly developing.   There is an upper low in the eastern Gulf and that has sheared all the T-Storms to the north of where the center might be.

I drew a small L where it appears there is a low level circulation, but with so few images available, that's just a guess. A recon plane will be out this afternoon and that will help determine if a center is really there.  Note the green circle is a T-Storm complex heading northward into Jamaica & eastern Cuba.  The color view shows how disorganized the storms are.  NHC has increased the chances for development to 90%, meaning it's going to happen.  So with little data to work with, it's back to the over night model runs.

The spaghetti plots have Louisiana as the bullseye with several just to the east.  Remember, the center point right now is a guess.  Changing that point changes where the models go.  However, it is disturbing the both the GFS and Euro have similar solutions.  The middle graphic is the GFS valid for Sunday morning while the Euro is slightly slower.  That's only 3 days away, which tells me whatever forms will be a quick mover.  But that does not seem to fit the predicted rainfall totals.

So it remains a guessing game right now as to what will happen this weekend.  What is clear is something is coming.  It might be a strong tropical wave bringing the heavy rain threat or a full blown major hurricane.  You should get to the store today and and tomorrow to get all your hurricane supplies, unless you have not prepared you home to withstand a storm and will have to evacuate IF the models are correct.  Uncertainty remains the word.  Once we have data from the plane, we should get better clarity.  I'll have a late afternoon update after 4 pm.  Stay tuned!