Hi Gang, We Now Have A Center To Track...

Once there were enough visible satellite pics to make a loop, NHC didn't waste any time in naming a circulation just SW of Jamaica Tropical Depression # 9, soon to become Tropical Storm Ida.

The color IR shows the cluster of storms to the north and NHC expects those to begin wrapping around the center later today.   Here's their first guess at the future track.

This is a really bad track for NOLA & the Mississippi coast since we're place on the stronger side of the path.  NHC cautions that the center line will shift several times and to focus more on the error cone right now.    I get nervous when I read in their discussion that they believe there will be "rapid intensification" once over the Gulf.  Here's why.

The top graphic is the oceanic heat content that has soon to be Ida passing right over the warmest waters.  Right now NHC is projecting a strong Cat. 2 (110 mph) hurricane, but cautions it could be higher.  The bottom graphic is the arrival time of tropical storm force winds.   You can see we have 3 days to prepare before it'll get too dangerous to be outside.   My gut tells me evacuations will be required outside the levee protections and recommended for those inside IF it becomes a Cat. 3 or 4.  As I suggested, get supplies today and tomorrow and if you choose to stay, I'll go over what you need to do to prepare your yards.  Next update later this afternoon when we should have data from the Recon flight.  Repeating, the initial forecast track and intensity is NOT GOOD for SE LA & MS. Stay tuned!