Increasing Chances For West Gulf Disturbance...

Earlier today, NHC labeled an area over the Yucatan as Invest 94 L and that started computer model runs based on a guesstimate center.   Satellite views are hinting of a broad circulation and I'm seeing at least three small swirls that I drew in with an L.

Since we don't have a real center to follow yet, let's not assume the early model projections that take the bulk of the heavy rains to our west.   That would be nice, but any shift to the east brings us into a heavy rain threat for many days just as recovery/repairing continues in Louisiana.

Whatever forms (TD or TS), it'll bring lots of rain with it.  RIGHT NOW, the heaviest (10-15"+) area is from Lafayette to west of Houston, but that will probably change.  For us the best scenario is the Euro that brings a closed low west of Houston by early on Tuesday.

The GFS (bottom graphic) brings the cventer right over Houston.  The farther west it goes the better for us.  We should know more by this time tomorrow.  But that's not all that's going on in the Tropics.

There are several swirls out in the Atlantic that could become named storms.  But those are way far away so let's focus closer.

NHC is highlighting ar area east of Florida for possible development later next week.   If that happens, it should head towards the Carolinas.  Back home, we are saying goodbye to the good feel air.

With the surface high now to our NE, the Gulf moisture is returning.  Dew points in the 50s are now back into the 60s with the 70s coming for most of this week.  There is a front bringing some cooler air into the northern Rockies, but I don't see any fronts coming for this week.

You can see some showers south of our coast with lots of smoke just to our north.   That smoke is causing hazy sunshine for a good part of the nation.  We're still almost hot, but the main change coming is we're going back to daily showers.

This will hinder recovery efforts and church tomorrow should include prayers for those displaced and those involved in the efforts to get them home.  We hope everyone stays safe.  Stay tuned!