Nicholas Forms In Extreme Southern Gulf...

As mentioned by NHC, satellite views and Recon reports indicates we have the newest (14th) Tropical Storm way down in the Bay of Campeche.  It is forecast to move over the warmest waters of the Gulf and could be a hurricane before landfall on Monday or Tuesday.

There are clusters of T=Storms on the colorized IR that indicate Nicholas is still disorganized, but that is expected to change.  The NHC's track forecast brings the storm towards the upper Texas or SW LA. coasts by early next week.

So we're back to following that center line track forecast. RIGHT NOW, it is projected to be WEST  of Houston and that would keep the winds and heaviest rains away from us IF it proves correct.  We don't want to see any eastward trend in later advisories as that would bring increasing threats/impacts to us.  Concerning with this track is the slowness of Nicholas as it makes landfall.  Look at the small movement from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM on Friday.  That would suggest Nicholas will become a super heavy rain threat for some.

The wind threat appears more likely for Texas, but look at the larger heavy threat.  Amounts greater than 10-15" extend into SW LA.  Any eastward shift in the track will shift that rain threat closer to us.   Since this is the first advisory on Nicholas, let's not think/let down our guard regarding the UNCERTAINTY in the track.  Better for us would be a westward shift.  Of course any eastward shift bring the dangers closer to us.  SW LA. hasn't recovered from Laura & Delta and we all know what Ida's impacts did to us.   So let's keep an eye on that center line to see if a trend develops.

The top view shows an upper low heading towards Florida that models try to develop into the Carolinas.  Not our problem as we will focus on Nicholas.  Low level gulf moisture (dew points 70+) have returned and radar is indicating lots of rain spreading northward ahead of Nicholas.  If you going out this afternoon, take your raingear.  I'll post during the Saint's game on FOX 8 after the 4 PM  update.   Stay tuned! and Who Dat!    Saints 34 Pack 31 !!!