Models Do A Flip Flop Back To The East...

Tropical Storm Nicholas has NOT strengthened tonight.  In fact, the recon flight had difficulty finding a well defined center.  This afternoon, they relocated the center farther to the north.  Tonight they relocated the center farther to the south.  The result is, Nicholas has been nearly stationary SE of Brownsville, TX.

He certainly doesn't look very good except for a recent burst around the so called center.   If you have followed pervious posts, you know this afternoon's models shifted farther to the west while tonight's has gone back to the east.  Here's the 10 PM NHC forecast track. 

The biggest difference is the shift in track after it moves inland on Tuesday.  The new tack turns more back into Louisiana bringing the heavy rain threat closer to us...IF that trend continues.   Let's look at how the center line track has shifted in the last 3 advisories.

The top map is from 10 AM taking the center over Houston.  The middle is from 4 PM shifting west of Houston.  Tonight's 10 PM map is on the bottom with the center line back over Houston.  What does all that model UNCERTAINTY mean to us?   With weaker storms, models preform poorly early on and you must not believe the future path is guaranteed.   With a nearly stalled system, that often signals a change in future path.  We need to remain focused on Nicholas, not as a major wind threat, but more on a heavy rain threat later this week.

Note the bullseye (15-20"+) is still on Houston, but that could shift into Louisiana IF the track comes closer than predicted.  We could have 2-3 days of heavy rainfall so do your best to protect any damaged property from Ida.

My take from tonight is UNCERTAINTY.   We'll have several more model runs to see if this eastward trend is locked in.  What bothers me is how the models turn the storm back into Louisiana on days 2 & 3.

A slow moving storm across central or north Louisiana keeps us on the WET SIDE.   It's not what we need after Ida.  Stay tuned!