Nicholas Looking Better Organized, Shifting Farther To West?

I'm watching the start of the Saints game while I await the 4 PM advisory.  Here's what I'm seeing so far.  There are several areas that have tropical potential, but they are far away so we focus on what's in the Gulf.

It appears to me, especially on the color IR, that Nicholas is getting better organized with T-Storms concentrating around the center.   I expect NHC will increase the max. wind speed on this next update.

Some good news is the spaghetti models appear to have shifted farther to the west AWAY from us.  That would be really good news if it's correct.   Especially since models are saying this will be an extreme rainmaker.

The top view is the Euro rain estimate indicating 1-2 feet or more along the upper Texas coast with the bottom being the GFS which is less aggressive, but still in the 10-15" range.  Here it is, the 4 PM advisory from NHC. 

On first glance it appears the track is the same from this morning.  But let's check the center line track.

The top graphic is from this morning while the bottom is from 4 PM.  Clearly there has been a shift WESTWARD by about 20 miles.   IF that trend continues, it means the main impacts will stay well to our west.

The main wind impacts are aiming for the upper Texas coast.  And that is where the heaviest rainfall is projected.

NHC is not as aggressive as the Euro, but 15-20"+ around Galveston with 10-15"+ around Houston will cause lots of issues.   So to recap...Nicholas has NOT increased in max wind speed (40 MPH) and is moving at a good clip (NNW @ 14).  His track has shifted slightly to the west and that should mean SE LA/MS will get little impacts except maybe 1-3" of rainfall over several days.   Let's see if that trend continues later tonight.  Stay tuned & go Saints!