Saturday, September 25, 2021

Thinking Of Calling the Fat Lady To Sing, But Remember Last October?

As we march towards October with none of the models showing any tropical development in the Gulf or Caribbean for the next 7-10 days, I want to give a call to the Fat lady to come sing..."turn out the lights, the party is over."   However, I do remember Cat. 3 Zeta slamming us last October 28th.   Historically, once beyond the first week in October, the threat for a major hurricane hitting us was near zero.  But with the warmer ocean waters during this warming cycle, Zeta proved we need to stay attentive well into October.  The Tropics remain active, but all the action is far away.




Teresa is already gone (surprise!) and the remains of Peter might make a comeback north of Puerto Rico.  Bit the big player is Major Hurricane Sam, now a Cat. 4 with winds to 140 MPG.





He's still far east of the Islands, but his satellite presentation is the classic "donut hole" of a major hurricane.  Fortunately, all guidance turns Sam to the north away from any land areas.  There is still some question as to how close it might get to New England late next week.






What we want to see are more cold fronts coming.   Alas, I guess we shouldn't get too greedy since out current weather has been so nice.  We did touch 80 today, but dew points in the 50s made it feel terrific.  




As low level moisture slowly increases this week, it will feel almost hot again.   Stay tuned!

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