It's Drier, But No Real Cold Coming Next 10 Days

A cut off upper low is slowly drifting to the NNE over northern Arkansas and the circulation around it has brought us some drier (lower dew points) air.  That trend will continue for the next 3-4 days with rain chances near zero.

What isn't coming anytime soon is colder air as there will be no dip in the Jet Stream over the eastern states.  The cold air is growing up in Alaska and Canada, but the upper steering will not allow that coming our way until after the 20th at the soonest.

When temperatures in Montana are in the 60s and 70s, you know we won't get cooler until they do.

Dew points in Texas are in the 40s & 50s and that good feel air should move over us during the next 3-4 days.  There is a dew point boundary right over us with DPs in the 70s east of the boundary and in the 50s to the west.

A couple of showers have bubbled up during daytime heating, but the 7 day has no more rain coming since the drier air will move in.  Note, we could flirt near 90 this weekend.  Back in 1980, we had 90 degree highs as late as October 10th.

The Tropics have shut down with only a weak swirl east of Florida bearing any interest.  NHC keeps chances for development low (20%) as upper wind shear will limit organization.  The GFS does try to develop a storm over the western Caribbean in the 10-14 day time frame.  Should not be our problem.  Stay tuned!