David said he doesn't see anymore rain during the next week so our current 85.92" may be the final number. The next 2 graphics I took off The Weather Channel this morning showing how the first 2 weeks of December 2021 have us on a pace to set a new warm record. In fact, most of the southern states have been very warm for the past 6-8 weeks. So what is going on?
We have been stuck in an upper air pattern that has a trough off both coasts with a ridge in between. This brings cold air over the Great Lakes & Northeast while it's chilly & wet out West. The ridge keeps the southern states very mild.
The upper air charts clearly show why the weather is what it is. The top graphic is from today showing the East coast trough that doen't extend down into the South. The next view is valid for Christmas morning showing a west to east flow over the South. The next view is valid a week from today that has the trough reforming over the western states with the bottom graphic valid 2 weeks from now that finally has that trough moving eastward. IF that proves to be reality, some really cold air will reach us during the first week of January 2022.
But in the short term, tonight is our last really cold night (MSY was 39 this AM) for awhile. We will flirt with record warmth for much of next week and that is why this December should end up as # 1 warmest.
As the center of the surface high centered over us right now shifts eastward, south winds off the Gulf will signal a warm up and a return of the muggies.
You can see that in this afternoon cloud pics with north winds pushing the clouds way off our coast, but south winds over Texas have the clouds heading back to the north. Last year Christmas Day had a high of 53, but this year will be 25-30 degrees warmer. If certainly is not "feeling a lot like Christmas" over the South. Sorry. Stay tuned!
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