Nocturnal Storm Risk Staying To Our North, Brief Cooldown Coming...

Often the greatest severe weather threat happens at night when many people are asleep.  SPC has issued a level 4 (out of 5) moderate risk for storms/tornadoes later tonight into Saturday.  Fortunately, the bullseye (highest risk) should remain well to our north with the best upper dynamics.

Satellite views have the classic comma shape to the clouds indicating a strong upper disturbance.  The forecasters at SPC are the best in predicting severe weather outbreaks, but I'm amazed that the current tornado watch has very little activity in it.  Actually the strongest storms are over norther Illinois.

I expect that to change as a strong cold front undercuts a deep flow of moisture coming north from the Gulf.  Look at how far northward the 60+ dew points go nearly reaching St. Louis!

On the northern and western sides of the surface low it's blizzard conditions.   We'll see a drastic temperature drop Saturday afternoon as highs fall from 80+ down into the 50s in a matter of an hour or two.

The brisk southerly winds we currently have will switch back to the north and blow 20-30 mph Saturday night into Sunday.  But as you can see, the chill will only linger for two days as the highs will be 70+ for much of next week.    Enjoy a wild weekend and stay tuned!