Friday, January 14, 2022

Old Man Winter Coming South This Weekend...

Today's model runs haven't changed the thinking regarding a major snow storm coming to the South this weekend.  They continue to lock on to an upper low/disturbance diving down over the central Plains and rotating right across the Gulf Coast.




The surface map shows the extent of the snow from South Dakota into Illinois.  As Arctic air pours southward into the low, the rains over Kansas & Missouri will changeover to snow that will move into northern Mississippi & Alabama by Sunday.




These are the upper level wind graphics with the top one from this afternoon, the last two valid for Sunday morning.   The is a minor shift to the center of the low on Sunday and that increases chances for some snow flakes mainly over the North Shore .  I grabbed these views from Bruce Katz's 4 pm. broadcast.






Our highest rain chances will come after the noon hour with the cold front plowing through around 4-5 PM.  Note the model has the slight possibility for some flakes after midnight on Saturday into early Sunday morning.  The measurable snow on the ground should stay north of Jackson.





We will be in the warm air sector(70s) for much of Saturday, but the lack of low level Gulf moisture should limit the potential for any strong storms.  The bottom graphic has the SPC's severe risk outlook that has a small area in Florida under level one risk.





You can see the clouds coming down from the NW and we will not see much sunshine for the next few days.  My thinking hasn't changed with morning lows on Monday being 24-28 for the North Shore and 30-35 south.  Saturday morning I'll get the tropical plants in my yard into my He-Shed, but this doesn't look like a hard freeze event since the upper low quickly lifts out to the NE keeping the core of the cold away from us.


Finally, I end on a happy note.  while walking Bailey this afternoon, I captured this picture of my neighbor's (Bernard) tree.  Who said we don't see colors in the South?  Stay tuned!

3 comments:

Unknown said...

Hey, the weather channel folks have a sizable difference for the lows Monday morning. You are saying 24/28, they say 35. Just a tad confusing, it has been like that all week.

Maryella said...

I got $5 on Bob. Want to make friendly bet? Loser can pay via paypal? Also note: Bob said southshore would be closer to 30-35 and Northshore closer to 24-28. Lmk if u wanna bet. I think it'd be cute 8)

Taoskier said...

Lafayette temp now in hi 50s. However, at one point I opened my car door, giving whatever was coming down a black backdrop. I saw this white thing come down, go up, and get otherwise thrown around by the wind. I used to live in NM, and I’m telling you, it looked just like a small snow flake! Full disclosure: I used to live near Roswell, and I’m open to the idea that it was a very small UFO.