Severe Threat Thursday Mainly North of Lake Pontcharrain...

We are back into the warm air sector with increasing low level moisture.  A strong upper disturbance over the Rockies will move eastward into the Plains tomorrow triggering some severe storms.  Based on model guidance keeping the upper energy well to our north, hopefully that means the worst of the severe weather stays far north?  I've grabbed these graphics from Bruce & David's programs.

The SPC forecast calls for the greatest danger from Jackson to Birmingham to Memphis.  However, we all should pay attention tomorrow afternoon when the cold front plows through.

Bruce showed the line nearing the South Shore around 5-6 PM.

So the battle is on between the cold and warm air, one that we'll see many times during the next few weeks.   Even though dew points have soared into the 60s, the fast movement of the upper disturbance should restrict rainfall totals to between 1-2" or less.

So Thursday will be windy & warm with increasing chances for showers during the afternoon hours.  Strong SSE winds will create higher tides and NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory mainly for the Mississippi coast.  Buckle up your seat belts for a wild temperature ride the next 7 days.

Unfortunately the parades this weekend will have to deal with wind & cold, but no rain.  We won't stay cold very long as we bounce into the 60s for Sunday's parades and near 80 by mid-week.  Stay tuned!