Severe Threat More Bark With No Bite...

After praising the SPC for being very accurate with our last severe event on Tuesday, their level 3 risk forecast (enhanced) for the North Shore this morning and level 2 (slight) risk on the South Shore turned into nothing as very little rain fell south with 1-2" in spots north of Lake P.  There was a tornado watch issued for the North Shore, but I haven't seen any damage reports.  So what happened?

The main upper energy went farther north than predicted and there developed a split between the northern energy and the southern stream.  That is very apparent looking at the radar view, bottom graphic.

These are the upper air charts showing where our next severe event might be coming next week.  The top graphic is from this morning showing the upper low moving into Missouri.  The next is valid for Sunday morning with the arrow pointing the new western trough.  The bottom view is valid next Tuesday with a deeper upper low centered in Kansas.  This will likely trigger a widespread outbreak of severe storms here late Tuesday into Wednesday.    But before then, this weekend looks delightful.

The surface map has a low in Missouri with warm air streaming all the way into New England.  There is some cold air on the backside of the low, but very little snow is falling since temperatures are too warm.

We will be cooler for Saturday & Sunday, but with lots of sunshine highs should get back to near 70.  Note the low dew points (dry air) back to our west.  That good feel air is coming for this weekend.

David plotted the front just to the west of Baton Rouge and showed how wind speeds will increase later tonight bringing in the chill.

As we head towards April, the cold fronts don't have the bite like back in January & February.   That doesn't mean we won't need sweaters & jackets anymore.  We will still get more cold fronts well into April. but today's highs in the mid 80s are a preview of what's coming.  Enjoy your weekend and stay tuned!