Sometimes It's Hard To Make Rain...

Last year ended as the second wettest of all time at MSY so it should come as no surprise that 2022 is off to a way below normal/average start.   We are currently almost 5 inches short of average.   We expected some rain today as a cold front lost its southern push and stall just to our south.  However, as an upper disturbance triggered a large area of rain, most of it was well to our north & west.

We'll have another opportunity for some showers overnight & on Wednesday, but most of the heavier storms will stay off our coast and head into the MS/AL/FL coastlines.

We still have an upper trough over the Rockies and that is keeping the frontal boundary stalled near us.  Look what the GFS model is doing to that trough.  The top satellite view is current  along with the next graphic .  But the following 12 take the trough to the east and sharpen it driving colder air our way for this weekend.  The bottom pic is valid for Sunday PM indicating the trough will quickly exit allowing for a big warm up next week.

There is no major March storm right now, but much of the country is quite chilly.  You can see the new surge of cold air diving into Montana.

There is a weak surface low over the western Gulf and that may trigger our next rain possibility.   The heaviest rain totals should stay south of NOLA.  Note how cold air is just to our north and west.  That is expected to stay a there since the upper flow remains from the SW.  That changes for the weekend and right now, NWS is predicting 24-28 on the North Shore Sunday morning with 33-37 south of Lake P.   We have several days to watch this so you don't need to start covering anything just yet.  Stay tuned!