One Month Until Hurricane Season 2022...

I know you don't want to hear about it, but tomorrow begins May leaving 31 days till the beginning of our next Hurricane Season.  Most of the "expert" predictors are again calling for an above average year increasing our chances for landfall in the U.S.  I choose to follow (and am a subscriber) to Weather Bell Analytics and here's their thinking.

Both Weatherbell & Colorado State University are in the same ballpark regarding it to be another active season.  As always, it's LOCATION that matters.  Weatherbell is indicating the Gulf coast from Brownsville to key West will see 7 impacting/landfalling storms.  Their thinking is leaning more to the eastern Gulf, from us on over to Florida for landfalling storms.  Hey, it makes for great headlines, but these earlier season forecasts really don't mean much as we must be ready even if there is only one.  What we can't predict with any accuracy is the location before the season begins.  

As we reach May, the storm track has shifted over the northern states with a deep surface low over Iowa.  Our triggers now shift to boundaries at the surface (land/sea breeze fronts) and to cold air pools aloft (instability).  The arrows points out those boundaries below.

The cold front to our NW will try to reach us, but unlike last Tuesday's front, this one will lose its upper support and dissipate.  next week looks to be almost hot with maybe our first 90?

Finally, I noticed several huge fires in New Mexico with smoke plumes blowing all the way into Oklahoma & Arkansas.   It's a sign of another active wild fire season ahead for many.  Enjoy your Sunday as I'll be in a boat with Capt. Hylton.  Stay tuned!