Could Alex Form Off The East Coast?

Our Hurricane Season doesn't start for another 21 days, but based on the past 6 seasons, it won't be a surprise to see another "preseason" named storm.  We have been following a slow moving UPPER low well off the Carolina coast that has several small circulations within the huge rotating upper low.  However, it appears that some storms (green arrows) are trying to fire off east of the best organized surface center.

If this trend continues as the southern low moves over the Gulf stream, I expect NHC will waste little time naming "Sub-tropical" Storm Alex later this week.   Already tropical storm force gusts are battering the Carolina coasts with high surf collapsing several coastal homes.  

One effect of this system is much drier air (dew points in the 40s & 50s) is wrapping around the western side all the way down to Miami.  Even our dew points have dropped back into the 60s.  That will make for another pleasant morning tomorrow here.  Water temperatures along the East coast are mainly in the 70s and that is why this system will likely be named "sub-tropical" (cold core) instead of Tropical (warm core).

With such dry air moving over us from the east, Wednesday should be another sunny, almost hot & dry day.  Computer models are indicating a cluster of late afternoon storms will rotate over us from the NE on Thursday PM.

So our rain chances do go up later this week, but expect many dry hours each day.  

Satellite views show the lack of bright (tall) cloud tops and the orange arrows indicating the surge of drier air.  At the surface, we have brisk ESE winds making for slightly higher water levels.  Finally...

With an upper trough over the western states, look how chilly they are.  39 in Reno with 60s in Las Vegas and barely 70 at Los Angeles.   For May...Burrr!  Stay tuned!