It should come as no surprise, but NHC has made the disturbance over the Yucatan, Potential Tropical Cyclone # 1. The reason? Based on model forecasts, they need to issue warnings 48 hours in advance of landfall and models make this system a Tropical Storm before hitting South Florida Saturday afternoon. This should be a two day event (Friday/Saturday) with the main threat heavy rainfall.
It's not a sure thing that Alex will be named as stron upper wind shear continues. This has blown the heaviest storms well east of the surface low with a mid level spin near the brightest (reds) colors.
David had an excellent detailed rain potential graphic on his 4 PM program showing a narrow band of 12" amounts. Compare that to the more general NHC graphic calling for 6-10 ".
This potential tropical development is happening on the day Colorado State University updated their April forecast. As you can see, they have INCREASED the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes by one. I actually thought they might lower those numbers since we didn't see a preseason storm. But they say without El Nino creating stronger upper wind flow, the warmer ocean temperatures should mean more numerous & more intense storms. My gut senses (based on the law of averages) that this season might see fewer storms than last year. Remember we had 21 named storms.
The bad part was 7 out of those 21 were in the Gulf with 3 affecting Louisiana. Just feel we're in for a break this year.
There is a weak front trying to stagger down to us. We might get into some drier air IF Alex forms and his rotation brings that air southward?
Locally, a couple of storms have fired up during daytime heating.
The 7 day offers no relief, but then again it's June.
If you have travel plans for the Florida beaches this weekend, no problem, Going to Disney World, no problem, Going to south Florida? Take the rain gear! Stay tuned!
No comments:
Post a Comment