2022 Hurricane Begins With Possible Storm For Florida...

All the "experts" are forecasting another active/above normal hurricane season and it appears it will begin with an early June start.  It should be noted, this is the first year since 2014 without a preseason named storm.  Based on what I'm seeing on satellite and computer models, Alex is likely to be named within the next 2 days.

NHC seems to be focused on the Low over the Yucatan Channel brushing off the Low east of Florida and the remains of Agatha, the Low over the southern bay of Campeche.  Interesting looking at Agatha, I still see a low level cloud swirl, but there are no T-Storms around the center.  If you buy into the models, the low east of the Yucatan is the main player.

The spaghetti models all aim for south Florida while the Euro & GFS have come into better agreement today.  Let's compare them.

The top graphic is the Euro valid for Saturday morning with the GFS valid at the same time frame.  Yesterday the GFS had nothing.  Today it has what appears to be a Tropical Storm off of Naples.  Now look at Sunday morning.

Both models quickly move the disturbance over Florida and into the Atlantic, but now the Euro become the more aggressive circulation.  The rapid movement over south Florida should limit the heavy rains to about 4-6"  Now lets advance another 24 hours to Monday morning.

Clearly the Euro is more robust and closer to the Carolina coasts.  It should be interesting to see which model is closer to reality.   Perhaps neither will be correct and the strong upper westerly wind shear doesn't allow anything to form/develop until it's well east of the U.S.  Regardless. Florida south of Tampa & Orlando will receive some heavy rainfall.

Back to our weather, clouds outline the frontal boundary where all the storms are today.  Unfortunately that front won't make it to us, but it might get close IF Alex develops down in the Gulf and his circulation drags the front through us.

All of the South is covered with deep tropical moisture (dew points 70+) and some daytime heating storms have popped up.

You can see how those storms fired up around Lake Pontchartrain this afternoon.  Where it's raining, temps dropped into the 70s.  No rain means 90+.

As I mentioned yesterday, the 7 day becomes fairly useless since we know every day will be hot & humid.  IF Alex develops and moves according to the models, we'll dry out and heat up for this weekend.  Stay tuned!