NHC Says Tropical Atlantic Could Get Active...

After having nothing to talk about (except the heat!) for the past 3-4 weeks, NHC sent out a graphic highlighting the Tropical Atlantic for possible development early next week.  Right now, they only give it a 20% chance since the system is way over by Africa and remains disorganized.

The bottom graphic is the Euro model's chances for Tropical Storm development in 7-10 days.  Since there is nothing there yet, all we can do is look at models.  First up is the GFS.

It certainly brings some kind of closed low into the Caribbean at day 7 and takes it straight westward into central America.  The Euro does the same, but...

The bottom graphic is the Canadian model that brings whatever might form way farther to the north.  In fact, it brings it over Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.  That would likely mean re-curvature into the Atlantic and away from us.  But again, there is NOTHING there yet.

The eastern Pacific continues active with a disturbance moving over the southern Caribbean.  An upper low is stalled off the Carolinas.  Otherwise, the main story continues to be our heat.

The Omega block is not as defined and the upper heat dome is shrinking with a cold front bringing folks to our north some relief.  In fact, look how the Northeast is in the 70s.

As the upper cap weakens, more clusters of storms have developed during daytime heating.  Hopefully we'll get under some of those storms as we head into the weekend.

A couple of storms are around, but not enough to offer much cooling.  Note Slidell is 100 again.

As rain chances increase, our daytime highs should be less hot.   That doesn't mean sweater weather.  After all, our daily normal/average high from now until the end of August is 90+.  Just do the common sense precautions if you're working or exercising outdoors.  Stay tuned!