Bonnie Is Coming, but Not Until July...

We have had zero tropical activity since Alex in early June, primarily due to a persistent upper heat dome that has covered most of the SE.  That upper pattern is slowly changing as the upper high is weakening and that, hopefully will allow for a more "normal" pattern of daytime heating storms to develop.  However, let's begin with the Tropics as models continue to advertise our next named storm is coming in the 10-14 day time frame.

There are two clusters of disorganized storms coming off of Africa and NHC has given the farthest westward one INVEST 94 L.  It is at a low latitude and should continue a due west track into next week.

Not all models keep 94 L (Eventually Bonnie) at the low latitude.  The Canadian bring it much farther to the north across Hispaniola and Cuba, potentially heading towards the eastern Gulf.

But that is one model.  The main global models keep it farther to the south.  First the Euro.

It brings soon to be Bonnie over the southern Caribbean into central America never getting into the Gulf.  The GFS is slightly different.

It brings Bonnie into the Yucatan reaching the extreme southern Gulf, but never threatening the northern Gulf.  Curiously, the GFS tries to form a weak low over the western Gulf early next week heading into Houston.   Right now, there is NOTHING to track so let's get back to the heat.

The heat dome is still there, but clusters of storms are getting more numerous.

Sooner or later we will get back to daily storms and then everyone will complain about being too wet.

Suck it up for another day or two gang.  Changes are coming for next week.

next week looks more like basic summertime for us...finally!  Stay tuned!