Tropics Getting Ready To be Active Again...

Ever since Agatha in the Pacific & Alex in the Atlantic during the first week in June, the tropics have been quiet.  However, based on satellite views & model runs, development is very likely in the eastern Pacific while the Caribbean could have something going on by the end of the week.

Yesterday I circled two areas that had flared up, the NE Gulf and the extreme southern  Caribbean.  The

Gulf disturbance isn't doing much nor is the Caribbean.  However models (especially the GFS as usual) develop a storm off the Yucatan.  NHC has hatched in that area, but only give it a low (20%) chance to happen.  Again, any development is for next weekend way down by the Yucatan.

In the short term, we still have an upper heat ridge centered to our west that will slowly drift near us for the next 2-3 days.

The Weather Channel & the networks are way overhyping this heat dome.  Sure it's hot and some cities are breaking records, but it's June and phoenix, las Vegas and west Texas are always hot in June.  What we're not seeing today is clusters of T-Storms rotating around the upper high from the NW.

Earlier showers have fizzled, but the lingering cloud cover have made many less hot.

It appears our rain chances will stay well below normal until later in the week.  The usual common sense heat precautions should be followed.  Stay tuned!