NHC Sounds The Alert, Danielle Coming To Eastern Atlantic?

After many weeks of quiet since Bonnie & Colin were around, The National Hurricane Center (NHC) finally has something to talk about.  As Benny Grunch might say, " Ain't Dere Yet", but today's model runs are definitely seeing something develop for early next week.   Both the GFS & Euro make it a named storm (Danielle) and head it across the Tropical Atlantic on a track that will take her way north of the Islands.

The top graphic is the Euro valid NEXT Sunday showing 2 systems.  Neither poise any threat to land.  The bottom view is the GFS and it is in good agreement.  However, let me explain why we should not worry about whatever forms.  Let's begin with the NHC outlook graphic.

There are 2 swirls coming off of Africa.  It's the southern one NHC is following.  RIGHT NOW, it is in an area free from Saharan Dust with graphics courtesy of Bay News 9 out of Tampa.

The arrow points out the area/window for development free of dust.  But if the models are correct in bringing this disturbance to the NW, it will encounter more dust plus cooler waters.  I suspect it will develop by Monday or Tuesday becoming a named storm.  But it will struggle as it encounters a hostile environment.

Where we don't want to see any storms the next 6-8 weeks is over the Caribbean and into the Gulf.  That is where the oceanic heat content is highest and deeper...translation more fuel to develop.   No signs of anything there for the next 7-10 days.

There are several small weak wave triggering clusters of storms with an upper low off the Carolina coast.  Otherwise, it's basic summertime for most.

Some cloud cover has reached Dallas giving them some relief from the daily 100+ heat.  Next they need some rain!   Looking for cold air?

It's starting to show up over the northern Rockies and especially Alaska.  Remember, for us to cooldown, it has to get colder up north first.  Are we starting to see signs of the change of seasons?

We've seen our usual spotty storms bringing some folks relief from the heat.  Don't see any major changes coming.  Maybe there will be higher rain chances later next week as an upper trough dips down towards us.  

I'm not thinking sweaters and jackets yet, but just staying in the 80s would be nice.   Enjoy your weekend,  Stay tuned!