Could The Atlantic Begin An Active Cycle?

Today's model runs (Euro, GFS) are finally beginning to hint that tropical activity way out in the Atlantic NEXT WEEK will increase.  Yea, satellite views from Africa see several waves of rotation, but will they develop?  Early signs are hinting at that, but models keep whatever forms well off the East Coast.

I've highlighted the three areas to watch and it appears the middle one is the system models try to develop.  The top view is the Euro with the bottom being the GFS valid for Monday Aug. 15th

The main take away should be there is nothing in the Caribbean or Gulf.  History shows us tropical activity ramps up after August 15-20th and this year should be no exception.  The "disturbed weather" over the Gulf shifted westward towards Texas bringing them much needed rainfall and cooling relief.

Houston was 100+ yesterday while today stayed in the 80s.  There remains no signs of organization in the Gulf and what is there is shifting to our west.

Not much else to talk about except we are ending up the hottest time, historically, of Summer.  It's amazing how night after night the news focuses on the heat.  Like it was this hot years ago?  Some of the hottest summers were in the 1930s and the 1980s.  

Rain chances might be a little less the next couple of days allowing our highs to get back above 90.  But that's what August is supposed to be.  Stay tuned!