Still Waiting On Danielle, But For How Long?

Yesterday's post talked about somethings gotta give regarding the next named storm.  We're now at day 56 between names (should be more) and I forgot to mention the movie (Somethings Gotta Give) had a happy ending.  Perhaps that's what this year's hurricane season is going to do.  Fewer storms, no Louisiana impacts & wouldn't that be nice?  However, just like yesterday, NHC says there are at least 4 areas to watch for development.  We'll start out in the Atlantic.

If 2022 were like the past 5-6 years, we could be tracking 3-4 named storms next week.  But something is different this year.   I'm not smart enough to know what it is, but something is different.  NHC has increased the red hatched area to 70%.

The computer models all take it north of the islands towards the Bahamas.  The Euro is more bullish making it a hurricane.  The GFS turns it away before reaching the East coast.

NHC is keeping a low chance for development over the western Caribbean mainly due to the GFS model.  That is the only model that predicts it will become a hurricane over the southern Gulf NEXT weekend.

Since whatever forms will stay way to our south, I'm more focused on the clusters of storms in the Gulf.  Models show nothing & NHC doesn't seem worried.

One thing for sure, we will get through August 29th this year without a tropical threat.  We have 3 days left in August and the question remains...will we end the month zero for August regarding named storms?  The most likely/best chances for Danielle appear to be the system out in the Atlantic.  We'll see.

I want to see cold fronts start moving out of Canada.  It is getting cooler up there, but we are several weeks away from real relief making it down to the Gulf coast.

The top radar view was from 2 pm followed by 3 pm & then 4:30.  MSY missed out on the rain & their temp was near 90.

It appears we'll continue with above normal rain chances into next month, but that keeps our highs less hot.  I'll be watching to see if the "tropical switch" is flipped on this coming week.  Stay tuned!