Ian Approaching Coast Near Cat. 5, Destruction Will Be incredible...

Kudos to NHC and their computer models  last night for saying Ian was going through an EYEWALL replacement cycle and would regain strength before making landfall.   They were right on and Ian now is as strong as Hurricane Ida at landfall here.  Take a look at these satellite views.

The top view is from last night when the northern side appeared to be weakening due to wind shear and entrainment of drier air.  How wrong I was old weather breath!  The bottom view is current showing a very symmetrical hurricane with the deepest reds on the east side.  That's where the greatest destruction will occur.  I'll use wording from our local NWS office during Katrina & Ida.  " There will be neighborhoods that will be uninhabitable for weeks, possibly months after the storm".  Those of you who have lived through our storms (Katrina, Laura, Delta, Ida) know it can take YEARS to recover.  Prayers need to go out for areas around Fort Myers as that is the likely landfall of the EYEWALL.  My experience tells me  IF you can stay away from the EYEWALL, you may have damage, but you won't have structures destroyed.

Here's the latest from NHC.  The center line track still could wobble a little, and that will make a huge difference regarding impacts.  The worse storm surge will stay well south of Tampa Bay.

the Tampa/St. Pete area will dodge the worse impacts, but you will see hurricane force winds & 10-20 inches of rain.  The bottom graphic is the rainfall totals.  The purple depicts 15-20 inches with the deeper orange being 10-15".  This will be a many day event with hurricane force winds lingering well inland, possibly all the way to Orlando.  Central Florida is effectively closed down.  Those of you keeping in touch with family & friends can expect cell service to go down as towers fail.  We learned you may be able to get text messages to go through long after the audio fails.  Try that.

the front EYEWALL is less than 2-3 hours of reaching the coast.   FYI, Jim Cantore is positioned in Punta Gorda so the videos later today should be dramatic & scary.  Louisiana has been the bullseye for the past several years.  We're glad, yet sad that someone else has to go through these Beasts of Mother nature.

Let's enjoy our great Fall weather that should last into next week.  Once Ian is gone, models are showing nothing developing in Gulf for the next 10-14 days.  that would get us well into October.  keep the fronts coming.  Next update around 4 PM.  Stay tuned!