Cold Front Impacting North Side Of Ian. Will the Eastern Shift Continue?

As I await the 4 PM NHC advisory, there are several things I'm seeing that tell me cooler & drier air may have started weakening the north side of Ian.   He remains a well defined major hurricane, but look at the changes in the structure of the donut hole EYEWALL.

When Ian came off Cuba, his eye was totally symmetrical on all sides.  Look at the latest color IR view that shows the northern side clearly weakened/whacked down.  Could that be the cold front reaching him and his circulation entraining drier air on the north side?

Dew points are in the 40s across all of the northern Gulf and Tropical systems thrive on moisture, not dry air.   Could this be the signal that Ian has peaked in intensity and will start a weakening process before he reaches the coast?   Let's look at the latest NHC 4 PM advisory.

Well, NHC's discussion indicates the change in satellite presentation is probably the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle and they believe that is temporary.  They keep Ian's current max winds at 120 MPH (Cat. 3), but forecast an increase to 130 + (Cat. 4) before landfall.   One thing to note, the NHC 4 PM centerline track is identical to their 10 AM advisory, meaning that eastward shift has ended.  Remember, the worst impacts will be to the right of forward motion.  This still will be a life changing storm for many with some structures in the EYEWALL uninhabitable for days, possibly weeks or months.  Pay attention to you local officials.  Even areas far inland away from the coast will be without power with flooding rainfall (10-20") possible.   Bottom line, NHC doesn't buy into Ian weakening anytime soon.  I hope they're wrong and we start to see that drier air along with increasing SW upper shear begin a weakening process.

The rest of the Tropics have several swirls, but nothing worth talking about.  There is an upper ridge over the Rockies with a deep trough over the East.  That has the West warm while the Great Lakes and NE are chilly.

Despite all day sunshine, we were 10 degrees cooler than yesterday.  The winds will remain breezy, perhaps even stronger on Wednesday as Ian moves towards Florida.

We are in for a stretch of delightful weather here.  No rain is expected into next week.  Enjoy, but keep Florida in your prayers.  Stay tuned!