Ian Now A Hurricane, Great Danger For Florida's West Coast...

I started in broadcasting in 1971 at WTVT-TV in Tampa.  My mentor/boss was the legendary Roy Leep, who guided the Bay area through many hurricane threats.  However, none of them were direct hits by a major CAT. 3+ storm.   Donna in 1960 battered south Florida but went south of Tampa keeping them on the weak side of that storm.  Same with Charley in 2004.   Elena came close in 1985 as a Cat. 3, but stalled and headed back towards Mississippi.   Ian, as predicted by all the computer models, is going through a rapid intensification south of Cuba and is expected to become a Cat. 4 west of Tampa by Wednesday.  IF the current center line track proves valid, this will be a major impact. life threatening storm for much of Florida's west coast including Tampa Bay.  Few living there have ever seen the kinds of impacts that will be coming.   You'll see water in places that never had water before.  The local EMs, broadcasters, politicians are all on media preaching from the same songbook.  Bottom line...get ready today & early on Tuesday as you could see widespread power outages that are likely to last days, if not weeks.  Again the track will be crucial.  IF you can avoid the EYEWALL, you should be OK.  

Unlike yesterday, when the T-Storms were disorganized around Ian, storms on the color IR have clustered around the center.   It doesn't have the classic donut hole shape yet, but he will.  Here's the latest NHC track.

That would bring the eyewall just offshore with the strongest side of the storm impacting all of Florida's west coast.  Storm surge could reach 5-10 feet which would bring water over the seawall in Tampa Bay.   Best case scenarios for Tampa/St. Pete would be for the center to drift farther to the west, or to turn quicker and go inland south.  Of course that would bring other areas south into harm's way.  I mentioned Cedar Key as a possible landfall on a previous post and that still looks like a "good" bet. The main computer models have come into agreement this morning.

The top is the Euro with the bottom the GFS.  The time is Wednesday AM.  They appear to be exactly the same.   This will be Florida's storm as the upper East coast trough will bring down a cold front to protect us from Ian.

look at the dew points in the 40s & 50s coming our way.  That'll bring 50s to the North Shore at night and 60s south.  Dare I say it...SWEATER WEATHER!

The cooler & drier air will be drawn down into Ian weakening the storm once by Tampa.  Unfortunately, it won't get there soon enough for them.   Get the Prayer lines ready.  Many will need them.  Next update after 4 PM.  Stay tuned