Newest model Runs All Turn Fiona Away From the East Coast.

As we head into the second half of September, there continue to be lots of tropical swirls, but it appears the only one to follow is Tropical Storm Fiona as she nears the Leeward islands.  The swirls out in the eastern Atlantic are not expected to develop despite this being the most active time of the hurricane season.  The "Tropical switch" has not flipped and after Fiona, models do not develop anything that threatens the U.S.

The NHC is highlighting several areas for possible development, but none would threaten land.  So let's 1st focus on Fiona, which appears to be struggling with westerly upper wind shear.  The center of circulation has once again come out ahead of the heavy T-Storms. (yellow arrow)

Recon Aircraft have been flying in and around the circulation and here's the latest update from NHC.

Tropical Storm Fiona's winds are unchanged at 50 mph.  Also unchanged is NHC's thinking that this storm will recurve out into the Atlantic and not threaten the U.S. East coast.  It could be a problem for Bermuda next week.   The bottom graphic I grabbed from BayNews9 out of Tampa that has all of the main models on the same page.  Even the Canadian that initially brought Fiona into the Gulf now has joined the others turning it away from the U.S.   I loved this graphic Zack Fradella used this morning on his FOX 8 programs.

It is the steering for next Tuesday with an upper high building over us blocking Fiona from coming our way.   The Caribbean remains quiet with a weak low forming along a frontal boundary east of the Carolinas.  Strong westerly upper winds will not allow much development.  The Gulf has a couple of clusters of storms, but none are organizing.

So before we get another cold front maybe in 10 days, we will be heating up and feeling summer-like into next week.

The upper trough over the Rockies will march to the East coast and it will be part of the reason Fiona makes the turn to the north.  

Some showers have moved inland along the upper Texas coast and our dew points are back above 70+. As that upper blocking heat dome parks over us, expect low to mid 90s to return for the last week of Astronomical summer.

We could see a few storms perk up tomorrow & Sunday before the heat dome caps our atmosphere.  Finally...

Remember all that smoke that spread from the western fires?  It is now pushing off the East coast and heading out to sea.  Amazing to see it linger over such long distances.  Stay tuned!