New Western Storm Promises To Be Southern Soaker...

Yesterday's cold front brought us enough rain to settle the dust.  We remain very dry, but models are optimistic that a real widespread soaker is coming for Friday night & the weekend.  There is a developing upper disturbance over the Rockies that is predicted to dive down into Texas.  That should spark a surface low over eastern Texas by late Friday.

It's been months since we received over an inch of rain and our yearly deficit is approaching a foot!  The bottom graphic is for Friday evening with storms forming along the Texas/Louisiana border.

The top graphic is for Saturday morning followed by Sunday afternoon.  If that is correct, this will be a fast moving system so I have a hard time buying into the computer rainfall forecast Hannah Gard used at 4 PM.  That has a broad area of 3-5" rainfall with some spots (pink & white) 4-6".  Remember, when in drought, leave it out.  I'll be happy with 1-2"!  Note on the middle graphic, the GFS is trying to form our next named storm east of the Carolinas.

Thursday into most of Friday should be terrific ahead of our Friday night soaker.  No signs of return moisture/higher dew points yet to our west.

No clouds around today, but I did see many smoke plumes.  We all need rain,

I feel comfortable saying rain chances after midnight on Friday into predawn Saturday will be 80-90%.  On this past front, coverage was 100%, but totals were pathetic.  Finally,

NHC won't give up on the Tropics.   We're done, but there will probably be another 2-3 named storms to make it seem like an active season.  Nothing in the Gulf...all is well!  Stay tuned!