When In Drought, Leave It Out...

One of my colleagues at FOX 8 years ago (Jeff Baskin) came up with that line when we went many weeks without rain.  Currently we are on day 23 since our last measurable rainfall (.03), but it's been like 6 weeks since we've seen a widespread rain episode.  I watched all the local channels today & they have bought into the models hook, line & sinker.  Our next cold front is coming and models have rain chances at 60% .

I grabbed the bottom graphic from Hannah Gard's noon program where the model has 1-2" total common across both sides of the Lake with several spots 2-3".  Remember, when in doubt, leave it out.  Let me show you what the models must be seeing.

Our next front is way up over the Pacific NW and it will quickly head towards us pushing through early on Thursday.  There is an upper swirl over the SW and that energy is what should trigger some showers.  However, I don't see any return low level flow off the Gulf and that lack of surface moisture should limit any showers.  But nobody ever seems to challenge the models.

The surface high is centered over the Virginias with a nose extending back into Texas.  When is the last time you have even seen a local weathercaster use a surface frontal map?

Brownsville's dew point is back to 60+, but satellite views (bottom) still have a NE flow across south Texas.   As the high shifts to the east, southerly winds eventually will bring back the muggies.  So the question becomes...will there be deep enough low level moisture available to produce showers?  I said yesterday I thought 60% was generous and I still feel that today.  We'll see if the models are correct.

Last week's drought monitor (new one out Thursday) had the really severe drought to our west, but a look at the current Mississippi River's level have us below 3 feet.  That is allowing a salt water wedge to work its way upriver threatening drinking water supplies below NOLA.  The Army Corps will construct a sill down river from us to block the salt wedge from reaching us.

NHC is watching a low-mid level spin off from Julia that is moving across the Yucatan.  It could become our next named storm (Karl) way down over the Gulf.  Fortunately, we have another cold front that will block/protect us from him.

Hannah showed the Gulf moisture moving northward, but the front arrives and pushes the cooler & drier air way down into the Gulf.  It is really getting cold up north with lots of 20s & 30s.  It may be time to start getting the sweaters and colder weather gear out of our closets.  I don't like it really cold, but cold air means no hurricanes.  Cooler air also means better fishing and I'll be out with Captain Hylton again tomorrow.  Stay tuned!