Severe Threat Not Coming Until After Dark...

There has been no change in the SPC's thinking regarding the severe weather potential for today & tonight.  The upper low back over the Rockies is pushing eastward with a surface low developing west of Houston.  A warm front is lifting out of the Gulf and that is where the danger will be...in the warm air sector.

Our severe threat won't arrive until well after dark, but before midnight.  SPC is keeping us in the level 3 (Enhanced) risk which is very high for us.  Usually that bullseye stays well to our north, but the air to our north is too cold.  You have to be in the warm air sector as typically cold air doesn't allow for big T-Storm development.

Buras has soared to 70+ as the warm air surges northward.  Some showers developed ahead of that front as it lifts farther to the north.  Here's the timing on a squall line/intense storms for later this evening.

So the bottom line is we are fine until after dark.  Need to go to the store, doctor appointment, early dinner?  No problem, just remember to get home before 8 PM and know what room is your SAFE ROOM in case warnings are issued on your FOX 8 weather app.

It appears the main threat tonight will be high winds with gusts to 60+.   Those strong winds off the Gulf are resulting in higher tides with some coastal flooding.  Zack on his morning programs showed the computer timing of the highest winds tonight.

So as you can see, our highest wind threat begins around 8 PM to our west, between 9-11 PM over the North Shore & Metro ending 11PM to 1 AM along the MS coast and lower Plaquemines.

So the time line gives us plenty of opportunity to secure our homes & yards.  I'm going to place all my hanging baskets on the ground until the danger passes.  Just in, at 11 AM SPC issued the first  Tornado Watch for the upper Texas coast & SW LA.  That is where the danger is now.  Our danger is many hours away and I'll have my usual late PM update after 4 PM.  Stay tuned!