It's The Timing, Stupid...

I once again modify the James Carville line inserting Timing for Economy.  This past weekend clearly was about timing as Sunday's parades enjoyed near perfect weather compared to the dismal conditions on Friday & Saturday.  For this week, it appears the only real rain day will come on Thursday ahead of our next cold front Thursday night & Friday.

The cause of our mid-week weather begins out over the West coast where the upper trough has been parked for most of this Winter.  The first upper low/energy is kicking out from Arizona with the stronger system following it over Vancouver.

Since the low tracks well to our west, we'll get deeper into the warm air sector for Tuesday & Wednesday.

Parades on those nights should have only a slight chance for a stray shower.  Thursday is a different story as the deeper Gulf moisture crashes into a strong cold front that will blast through after dark.

At the moment, timing on Thursday appears to be between noon & 5 PM, but that can change.  Friday and Saturday will be dry, but rather chilly before a warming trend arrives for Sunday through Mardi Gras.  Ahead of the front will be the potential for severe storms.

SPC (Storm Prediction Center) predicts an area to our north & west for slight risk of severe storms on Wednesday shifting eastward on Thursday.  It appears the North Shore as usual will have the greater risk.

In the short term, the surface high is drifting eastward shifting winds back to the south.  Dew points are rising into the 50s across Texas and you notice a different feel to the air Tuesday & Wednesday.  

So far this month, we have either been way above normal/average or slightly below average.  I see nothing that would make me feel a hard freeze threat is coming during the next 7-10 days.  I apologize for not posting on FB for the past several days.  I've been dealing with an expired password, but hopefully that has been fixed?!!!   Stay tuned!