Hostile Environment Hinders Gulf Development

Yesterday I emphasized "IF" a Gulf Low develops. I highlighted the high UNCERTAINTY because water temps were cool (70s), surface air was cool (60s), dew points were low (40s & 50s) and the upper low over western LA. was creating strong upper wind shear.  Well, a low level circulation is showing up on satellite views, but there is no weather with it.  The "cut off upper low" remains over Lake Charles with the surface feature (yellow arrow) forming between the split in the upper flow over the Gulf.  Lots of dry air is entraining (drawn around) around the upper low and all this combines to create a "Hostile environment" for any development.

All of the heavy storms have been blown far to the north & east of this small feature with most of the rainfall now shifting east of the mouth of the River.

That should mean most of SE LA (except down along the coast) has missed out of the heaviest rains and now the main issue is high water levels with high tides occurring right now. Water levels should begin falling after midnight.

Temperatures have stayed in the 60s due to the dense cloud cover, but that has thinned allowing for some sunny breaks with temps. popping back to 70+  So when will this upper pattern begin to change?  Very soon as the "kicker" upper trough is moving in to the West coast and that should force the upper low over Lake Charles to lift out to the NE tomorrow.

Under the upper high to our north, summer-like warmth has surged up to Minneapolis & Green Bay (mid 80s) while the Gulf coast (including Florida) is 10-15 degrees cooler.  Miami & much of SE FLA. has been soaked with 4-7"+ rainfall ending their dry spell.  For us, we'll warm up with more sunshine (I see us back 75-80 Thursday and 80+ Friday) before another fast moving upper disturbance brings us storms Saturday PM.

I'll be away from my computer for a few days so keep up with the FOX 8 weather staff until I post again.