Will Surface Low Form In Gulf?

Amazingly, there are still many social media posts calling for a "historic" Gulf Low to form south of us. This despite nothing from NHC indicating an area to watch & all the chilly air that covers the northern Gulf. Yeah, we do have an UPPER low over western Louisiana, but look at the chilly water temps, air temps and low dew points.

IF something does develop, it will be more like a Winter type low (cold core).  However, that doesn't mean we'll see no impacts.  If fact, lots of warnings are up, including a Gale Warning for the offshore waters.

2-3 feet above normal tides will have some water over docks and coastal roads outside the levee protection system.  Hannah Gard gave us two scenarios.

IF the low develops (emphasis on IF) farther to the west, that brings the heavier rainfall more into SE LA.  Amounts in the city could reach 1-2" on the North Shore & 2-4" south, with 5-10" along the coast.

Right now, I can NOT find any low level circulation on either satellite or radar loops.  IF a low does develop, watch for the surface winds to increase over night.  It's all ready rocking offshore in the Gulf with seas 6-9 feet.  What is causing all this commotion is an unusual upper pattern called a "Rex Block" where an upper high forms over an upper low.

This is causing our storminess, but also summer-like warmth up north.  Note the snow cover still on the ground (almost all of the white) with temps still in the 40s & 50s.  Contrast that to the 80s & 90+ with no snow on the ground.  Pretty dramatic!

So until we can get the "cutoff upper low" to lift out on Thursday, expect several days of cloudy skies & rainy conditions resulting in below average/normal temperatures.  

We'll warm back up as the sun returns on Friday.  Another fast moving disturbance flies by on Saturday bringing us drier & cooler air for Sunday & Monday.  My Fishing trip?  Sorry you asked!  We knew it would be difficult to find clean water with the strong winds.  We didn't with the result 4 catfish & 2 keeper trout.  Pitiful!  I'll wait for calmer weather before we try again.  Stay tuned!